McCown, Roethlisberger, Foles, Newton Hottest QBs in Last 4

You know a player is great when they are the metric by which all others are measured. Such is the situation Peyton Manning finds himself in. He's put up so many points this year, using the word 'great' feels like an insult to all that he's accomplished this year. Peyton's 4552 yards, 45 touchdowns with only 9 INTs this far in 2013 puts him on pace to re-write the record books. He's on pace to score 55 TDs this season, smashing Tom Brady's record of 50 TDs. He's also on pace for 5502 yards, which would edge out Drew Brees's who threw 5476 yards in 2011. In short, Peyton Manning's numbers have been better than great. They're freakishly great.

As far as fantasy points go, Peyton is still far ahead of the competition. With 47 more points than his closest competitor, Drew Brees, it's easy to proclaim him as the most valuable QB this year. But even the best of the best have setbacks throughout the year.  Peyton had two tough games against Kansas City Week 11 and New England Week 12,  but then returned to his other-worldly form in his last two games, combining for 9TDs and 800 yards, good for 63pts. Despite those two great games, four QBs have managed to best Peyton's average mark of 19.75pts over the last four games.

Cam Newton - CAR

The man's got game. Tie game. No wonder he's smiling. Double-Windsor all day SON!

QB	4th Start	3rd Start	2nd Start	Last Start	Last 4 Weeks Average	Overall Rk	Last 4 Rk
C. Newton	26	19	26	14	21.25	4	T-3rd

Having been a bit of a hit-or-miss player throughout the year, Cam has been remarkably more consistent, scoring really well against New England, Miami and Tampa Bay. Had he maintained his pace of success, he'd have earned the top spot, but a pretty mediocre performance against New Orleans on Sunday brought him to 1.08 Peytons, good enough to a tie for third-best.

Nick Foles - PHI

He might look like the guy that played Napoleon Dynamite with just a touch of Butt-Head, but he's much better at tossing the pigskin

QB	4th Start	3rd Start	2nd Start	Last Start	Last 4 Weeks Average	Overall Rk	Last 4 Rk
N. Foles	22	21	23	19	21.25	17	T-3rd

Nick Foles has stormed on the scene since taking over the starting role from Michael Vick and has been playing some great football. If we were to extend this over the past 5 starts, Nick Foles would be far and away the highest scorer, totaling 130pts over that span for a 26pt average. He has been nothing short of great and a great waiver wire pick-up for those who scooped him up, and surprisingly consistent. Foles measures in at 1.08 Peytons, tied with Cam for 3rd best in the league.

Ben Roethlisberger - PIT

Roethlisberger knows how real men shave. They don't.

QB	4th Start	3rd Start	2nd Start	Last Start	Last 4 Weeks Average	Overall Rk	Last 4 Rk
B. Roethlisberger	31	16	19	23	22.25	10	2nd

That's right. The highest-scoring quarterback over the past four weeks is none other than Big Ben. The same guy that was averaging 11pts/game through week 8 has been back in spectacular form, thanks to great play by Antonio Brown and supporting cast Heath Miller, Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery. He squeaks into the 2nd spot with help from this controversial late-game-lateral play. With Aaron Rodgers out of the picture and a couple of bad performances from Drew Brees, Roethlisberger has been consistently good and had a great game against Detroit. While it's a bit ridiculous to call him the best quarterback going forward, he's made a case for himself as a viable playoff starter going forward, weighing in at a whopping 1.13 Peytons. Hats off to you, Big Ben, but there was one guy better.

Josh McCown - CHI

Yep, this guy

QB	4th Start	3rd Start	2nd Start	Last Start	Last 4 Weeks Average	Overall Rk	Last 4 Rk
J. McCown	12	18	22	38	22.5	31	1st

Your eyes don't deceive you, Josh freakin' McCown is the scoring leader over his last four games. Even considering his relatively slow game against the Ravens four weeks ago,  Josh "Always the back-up, never the starter" McCown has been playing some great football from from both the NFL and Fantasy Football perspective. It appears the move to bring in the the quarterback whisperer, Mike Trestman, by Bears upper management is paying off big-time, as the man has performed at an impressive 1.14 Peytons. And yet, the Bears are saying that Cutler is still their starter? Preposterous! While Jay may be at the top of the depth chart, McCown played better than anyone else in the league in his tenure as starter. If the Bears are serious about benching Josh "Hottest QB in the league" McCown, they must know something we don't, as all I can see is a guy making great plays where Cutler struggled. As a football fan, I want to see more McCown highlight TD passes, though as a Lions fan, I'd much rather see Cutler in there this week. But I could be wrong. Who knows? Cutler could be the next Josh McCown.

DISCLAIMER: Despite all of this last 4 weeks discussion, it'd be irresponsible to ignore that none of these players come close to Peyton's 25.5pt average on the season. The man is making a case for greatest quarterback, if not the greatest player, of all time and there are not enough superlatives to use to describe the guy.


As always, here is a link to the data used in these calculations. Thanks for stopping by at Touchdown Megatron. Like this material? Let me know in the comments! Hate it? Let me know in the comments! Ready to throw all of your QBs off a tall cliff? Let me know in the comments!

Honorable Mentions (performance over last 4 starts): Tom Brady - 19.5pts/game, 6th in QB Scoring. Carson Palmer - 19pts average, T-8th in QB scoring. Josh McCown - 18pts/game, 12th in QB scoring. Ryan Tannehill - 16pts/game, 10th in QB Scoring.

Dishonorable Mentions (same as above): Matt Ryan - 13.25pts/game, T-22nd in QB scoring. Tony Romo - 14pts/game, T-19th in QB scoring. Matt Stafford - 15.25pts/game, 16th in QB scoring. Drew Brees - 17pts/game, 13th in QB scoring.

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Philip Rivers: Start or Sit?

For the teams that have managed acquire Philip Rivers this year, chances are pretty good that they've had a great return on investment. For a player that went undrafted in many leagues, he's been the 6th best QB so far, averaging 18.1pts in ESPN Standard Scoring. But is he the 6th best QB available in the league now?

Philip Rivers - QB - San Diego

There's no dispute over who's leading the league in great facial expressions

Consider this. Rivers started the year in top form, averaging 22pts over his first four games. Since his explosive start, he's been relatively less productive, averaging a less than stellar 16.3pts on the year, including a mediocre 12pts against the Broncos in week 10 in San Diego, which alone might have you checking the waiver wire for a better option. Also, the Broncos pass defense has been strong at home, allowing only 9 TDs while snagging 9 INTs. On the road? 15 TDs, 6 INTs. While Rivers only managed one of those pass TDs on the road, there's still signs of encouragement for Rivers owners.

Though it's typically held that players perform worse on the road, Rivers has actually been better, averaging 18.7pts away from home, including his last road game where he scored 27pts against a tough Chiefs defense.

By NFL standards, Rivers has been much more productive. For those that follow advanced statistics (info on that here), he's second to only Peyton Manning in Win Points Added on the year, and third in Expected Points Added, behind Peyton and Drew Brees. Great company to be amongst, meaning the Chargers head coach, Mike McCoy, will have comfort having Rivers pass in the most crucial situations.

Personally, my biggest concern is the Chargers defense. While they've been effective at stopping run production, the Broncos' pass-attack is tough for even the best secondaries in the league. With a first-round bye on the line in a tight playoff-race with the Chiefs, Manning will be in top-form and keeping a close watch on the clock. Throw in a shortened time to prepare for the game, and you have to give the edge to the stronger team.

The biggest threat is the Broncos performance in their last game, holding the Titans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to a miserable 8pts. 

Bottom-Line here: The Broncos are clutch. C-L-U-T-C-H. Recent performance indicates that Rivers is up against a mountain of a team for success here.

My advice? If you're really outmatched and need a home-run at QB, start Rivers and don't look back.

If there are any reasonable options available, you bench Rivers. After all, it's a Thursday game and a lot can happen to your team in the intermediary period. I'm personally starting Big Ben with his recent success, as Antonio Brown has been unstoppable. Other players around or below 50% owned I'd feel better about starting than Rivers: Andy Dalton, Cutler (should be McCown), Joe Flacco, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Cassel.

In the end, you have to go with your gut. What ever you decide, best of luck this week.

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Have any questions for me? Comment below! Whether you love my analysis or hate it, your feedback is always appreciated. For all inquiries related to the blog, direct an email to jaywillyfantasy@gmail.com

D/STPA Update

After some discussion on /r/fantasyfootball, it was suggested that I take a closer look at the numbers to support my assertions about D/STPAs being more consistent and predictable than traditional D/STs (in case you missed it, see my last post for more info on that). I decided to take a look at the numbers comparing week-by-week scoring for D/STs and D/STPAs and seeing how consistent it really was.

For those familiar with statistics, you can go ahead and skip down the results. If not, the next two paragraphs should help you understand the numbers I'm presenting.

For each team, I found the standard deviation of the scoring, which, in nutshell, describes how far apart the numbers. For example, if a D/ST or D/STPA scored 15pts every week, its standard deviation would be 0. On other hand, a team that scores 0pts half the time and 26pts the other half would have a standard deviation of 13. It's a basic statistical tool used to measure how far apart a group are, and a smaller standard deviation indicates a group of numbers that are closer together. I also included variance, which is just another way of expressing the standard deviation. It is equal to the standard deviation squared and is useful to other statistics nerds like me.

I also used RSD, or relative standard deviation, which is just a comparison of a team's standard deviation to how much it typically scores. For example, Jacksonville's D/STPA is averaging 11.33 points per game so far this year, and the standard deviation of their scores has been 5.67, which is about half of their average. Their RSD is 50.09%. Compare this to Kansas City's D/STPA, who have scored 4.58 points per game, and have a standard deviation of 2.84. Kansas City has a much smaller standard deviation, which might suggest that they've been more consistent. It turns out that Kanas City has a higher RSD, coming in at 60.01%. This is because KC's average is so much smaller, meaning it varies more relative to the average.

I sampled the data for the top 12 performing D/STs and D/STAs, then sampled again for the top 16 and finally took a look at the overall picture, sampling all 32 teams. (the data used is 2013's ESPN Standard through week 13). Total average is the average points scored each week per team. The Standard Dev Ave is the average standard deviation for each team.

1st - 12th	D/STPA	D/ST	DIFF
Total Average	9.576388889	9.347222222	0.23
Standard Dev Ave	6.029854549	6.440849765	-0.41
Average Variance	38.45196759	43.68171296	-5.23
RSD AVE	63.95199358	70.88362818	-6.93

The data for the 12 suggests that the D/STPAs score more points, and tend to be more consistent. To put a number on it, the data is about 7% more consistent for D/STPAs than D/STs.

1st - 16th	D/STPA	D/ST	DIFF
Total Average	9	8.7499999998125	0.25
Standard Dev Ave	6.0095724855625	6.338361178	-0.33
Average Variance	37.744791665625	42.23611110875	-4.49
RSD AVE	68.49325761625	74.877400960625	-6.38

Taking a look at the deeper league numbers, D/STPAs gain on the average scoring, and only lose a bit of ground to the D/STs in consistency, about .45% RSD.

1st-32nd	D/STPA	D/ST	DIFF
Total Average	6.8619791665	6.8619791664	0.00
Standard Dev Ave	6.1213286290	6.2629449369	-0.14
Average Variance	39.4450954838	40.8527156288	-1.41
Ave RSD	98.1939681550	99.7977018800	-1.60

Looking at the whole crop, we see the difference in standard deviation and RSD decrease substantially. One thing I noticed straight away was that RSD becomes a much less effective metric when a teams scoring average gets close zero. Case and point: Denver D/STPA, who comes in at a stout 2pt total (!) on the year, averaging 0.167pts per game, which resulted in a whopping 3638% RSD. Insanity! I removed that data point from the total RSD calculation as it skewed the data tremendously. For teams with low averages, simply using the standard deviation is the most effective metric. I left Denver's data in for the calculations other than RSD, as the rest were statistically usable.

The biggest takeaway? D/STPAs have been more consistent across the board so far this year. The next step is to take a look at previous years and see if this is the real deal. I'll keep you posted.

If you enjoyed this post, hated it, or even if you thought it was completely useless, leave a comment. I'll make my best effort to respond as soon as I can. For those that want  to take a look at the date themselves, feel free to check out my spreadsheet here.

Tired of Getting Screwed by D/STs every week? Introducing D/STPA - a (somewhat) more predictable alternative

It's 10 minutes before Monday Night Football and your team is up by 5 pts, or at least they should be, as instead of a reasonable 7 point outing for your starting D/ST, the fantasy football overlords bestowed unto you zero points. Zilch. Nada. Meanwhile, your opponent, who was feeling pretty weak about having to start a team's touchdown vulture last Wednesday, now has a realistic chance of beating you. All because of this horribly unpredictable, bastard of a position. You're pissed, and you have every right to be. But your anger is probably misdirected at your choice of D/ST, when you should be pissed off at the creators of fantasy football, as even the most skilled fantasy football players have a hard time predicting D/ST success.

Let's be honest. D/STs are like your drunk uncle at your annual holiday party. You're forced to be around him, he's unpredictable, and he's liable to do something that will piss you and everyone else off. Yet every year he still gets invited back. Well, guess what Uncle Chester?? You're not hitting on my girlfriend this year. That's right. You can pass out on your futon and piss your pants at home this year, because you're a goddamn disgrace. *PHEW* Ok, I feel much better.

Aside from kickers, D/STs have been the most difficult position to predict in fantasy football. Even the most in-depth analysis of D/STs (shout-out to reddit's own /u/quickonthedrawl for his great projections) would consider 50+% accuracy a pretty great day. Defenses have frustrated fantasy football players for years and most have simply accepted it. Some leagues have turned to using IDPs, a suitable option for the more die-hard fantasy football enthusiasts, but there exists a simpler. more elegant solution that will not scare away the more casual fantasy players. Because the most predictive element in D/ST success is the offense they are defending against, the solution, ladies and gentlemen, is to reverse the scoring completely. I introduce to you D/STPA, or D/ST points against.

Here's how D/STPA works. Instead of having to pick up whichever defense is playing Jacksonville, the Jets, or *insert terrible NFL franchise here*, or picking up a so-called stud D/ST that still manages to be inconsistent, you can draft that terrible team's opposing D/STs for the year.

Take a look at the point distribution for D/STPAs so far this year:

D/STPA Scoring Leaders Through Week 13 - ESPN

1. Giants D/STPA - 157
2. Jets D/STPA - 152
3. Jags D/STPA - 136
4. Browns D/STPA - 123
5. Raiders D/STPA - 109
6. Vikings D/STPA - 103
7. Ravens D/STPA - 101
8. Dolphins D/STPA - 100
T9. Bills D/STPA - 93
T9. Cardinals D/STPA - 93
11. Redskins D/STPA - 92
12. Buccaneers D/STPA - 91

Compare this to D/ST:

D/ST Scoring Leaders Through Week 13 - ESPN

T1. Seahawks D/ST - 140
T1. Panthers D/ST - 140
T3. Bengals D/ST - 136
T3. Chiefs D/ST - 136
T5. Cardinals D/ST - 119
T5. 49ers D/ST - 119
7. Rams D/ST - 111
8. Dolphins D/ST - 95
9. Titans D/ST - 91
10. Buccaneers D/ST - 87
T11. Bills D/ST - 86
T11. Browns D/ST - 86

First thing you'll notice, the top 12 D/STs score about the same on average as the top 12 D/STPAs, with the top 12 D/STs averaging 112.17pts, while D/STPAs score 112.5pts. The key difference is that the distribution for D/STPAs creates more valuable pickups. If you take a look at the best and worst of the top 12 of each list, you'll notice the top two D/STPAs outscore the 9th-12th range by 59-67 points, or 5 points on average, while the top 4 D/STs have performed comparably, with a less significant 50-54 point gap between the most and least desirable starters.

By reversing the way we typically play D/STs, it creates a much more stable and playable dynamic, opening up an entirely new host of draft-day strategies.

Additionally, this also gives the more savvy players the stream ability to stream D/STPAs against strong defenses, much like they might in traditional D/ST formats, if they don't manage to draft a strong one.

League's that may have trepidations making such a substantial scoring change may want to start by allowing both D/STs and D/STPAs, which allows your fellow league-mates to try out the new format without losing the ability to start the defenses they like, though this is likely to be far less fun, as your left with the choice to have teams start a D/ST and a D/STPA each week or have one hybrid slot and a thoroughly diluted selection of starters each week while simultaneously allowing D/ST to face their D/STPA counterpoint to guarantee identical scores (what a bore).

It's an interesting concept that I look forward to trying in at least one league next season, but, admittedly, it feels incomplete. Compared to D/ST, D/STPA is only slightly more consistent and predictable and considerably less predictable for the middle-of-the-pack teams. If you have any suggestions or ideas on how to improve D/STPA, or you'd just like to chat, I'd love to hear your thoughts.