Philip Rivers: Start or Sit?

For the teams that have managed acquire Philip Rivers this year, chances are pretty good that they've had a great return on investment. For a player that went undrafted in many leagues, he's been the 6th best QB so far, averaging 18.1pts in ESPN Standard Scoring. But is he the 6th best QB available in the league now?

Philip Rivers - QB - San Diego

There's no dispute over who's leading the league in great facial expressions

Consider this. Rivers started the year in top form, averaging 22pts over his first four games. Since his explosive start, he's been relatively less productive, averaging a less than stellar 16.3pts on the year, including a mediocre 12pts against the Broncos in week 10 in San Diego, which alone might have you checking the waiver wire for a better option. Also, the Broncos pass defense has been strong at home, allowing only 9 TDs while snagging 9 INTs. On the road? 15 TDs, 6 INTs. While Rivers only managed one of those pass TDs on the road, there's still signs of encouragement for Rivers owners.

Though it's typically held that players perform worse on the road, Rivers has actually been better, averaging 18.7pts away from home, including his last road game where he scored 27pts against a tough Chiefs defense.

By NFL standards, Rivers has been much more productive. For those that follow advanced statistics (info on that here), he's second to only Peyton Manning in Win Points Added on the year, and third in Expected Points Added, behind Peyton and Drew Brees. Great company to be amongst, meaning the Chargers head coach, Mike McCoy, will have comfort having Rivers pass in the most crucial situations.

Personally, my biggest concern is the Chargers defense. While they've been effective at stopping run production, the Broncos' pass-attack is tough for even the best secondaries in the league. With a first-round bye on the line in a tight playoff-race with the Chiefs, Manning will be in top-form and keeping a close watch on the clock. Throw in a shortened time to prepare for the game, and you have to give the edge to the stronger team.

The biggest threat is the Broncos performance in their last game, holding the Titans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to a miserable 8pts. 

Bottom-Line here: The Broncos are clutch. C-L-U-T-C-H. Recent performance indicates that Rivers is up against a mountain of a team for success here.

My advice? If you're really outmatched and need a home-run at QB, start Rivers and don't look back.

If there are any reasonable options available, you bench Rivers. After all, it's a Thursday game and a lot can happen to your team in the intermediary period. I'm personally starting Big Ben with his recent success, as Antonio Brown has been unstoppable. Other players around or below 50% owned I'd feel better about starting than Rivers: Andy Dalton, Cutler (should be McCown), Joe Flacco, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Cassel.

In the end, you have to go with your gut. What ever you decide, best of luck this week.

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Have any questions for me? Comment below! Whether you love my analysis or hate it, your feedback is always appreciated. For all inquiries related to the blog, direct an email to jaywillyfantasy@gmail.com