It's 10 minutes before Monday Night Football and your team is up by 5 pts, or at least they should be, as instead of a reasonable 7 point outing for your starting D/ST, the fantasy football overlords bestowed unto you zero points. Zilch. Nada. Meanwhile, your opponent, who was feeling pretty weak about having to start a team's touchdown vulture last Wednesday, now has a realistic chance of beating you. All because of this horribly unpredictable, bastard of a position. You're pissed, and you have every right to be. But your anger is probably misdirected at your choice of D/ST, when you should be pissed off at the creators of fantasy football, as even the most skilled fantasy football players have a hard time predicting D/ST success.
Let's be honest. D/STs are like your drunk uncle at your annual holiday party. You're forced to be around him, he's unpredictable, and he's liable to do something that will piss you and everyone else off. Yet every year he still gets invited back. Well, guess what Uncle Chester?? You're not hitting on my girlfriend this year. That's right. You can pass out on your futon and piss your pants at home this year, because you're a goddamn disgrace. *PHEW* Ok, I feel much better.
Aside from kickers, D/STs have been the most difficult position to predict in fantasy football. Even the most in-depth analysis of D/STs (shout-out to reddit's own /u/quickonthedrawl for his great projections) would consider 50+% accuracy a pretty great day. Defenses have frustrated fantasy football players for years and most have simply accepted it. Some leagues have turned to using IDPs, a suitable option for the more die-hard fantasy football enthusiasts, but there exists a simpler. more elegant solution that will not scare away the more casual fantasy players. Because the most predictive element in D/ST success is the offense they are defending against, the solution, ladies and gentlemen, is to reverse the scoring completely. I introduce to you D/STPA, or D/ST points against.
Here's how D/STPA works. Instead of having to pick up whichever defense is playing Jacksonville, the Jets, or *insert terrible NFL franchise here*, or picking up a so-called stud D/ST that still manages to be inconsistent, you can draft that terrible team's opposing D/STs for the year.
Take a look at the point distribution for D/STPAs so far this year:
D/STPA Scoring Leaders Through Week 13 - ESPN
1. Giants D/STPA - 157
2. Jets D/STPA - 152
3. Jags D/STPA - 136
4. Browns D/STPA - 123
5. Raiders D/STPA - 109
6. Vikings D/STPA - 103
7. Ravens D/STPA - 101
8. Dolphins D/STPA - 100
T9. Bills D/STPA - 93
T9. Cardinals D/STPA - 93
11. Redskins D/STPA - 92
12. Buccaneers D/STPA - 91
Compare this to D/ST:
D/ST Scoring Leaders Through Week 13 - ESPN
T1. Seahawks D/ST - 140
T1. Panthers D/ST - 140
T3. Bengals D/ST - 136
T3. Chiefs D/ST - 136
T5. Cardinals D/ST - 119
T5. 49ers D/ST - 119
7. Rams D/ST - 111
8. Dolphins D/ST - 95
9. Titans D/ST - 91
10. Buccaneers D/ST - 87
T11. Bills D/ST - 86
T11. Browns D/ST - 86
First thing you'll notice, the top 12 D/STs score about the same on average as the top 12 D/STPAs, with the top 12 D/STs averaging 112.17pts, while D/STPAs score 112.5pts. The key difference is that the distribution for D/STPAs creates more valuable pickups. If you take a look at the best and worst of the top 12 of each list, you'll notice the top two D/STPAs outscore the 9th-12th range by 59-67 points, or 5 points on average, while the top 4 D/STs have performed comparably, with a less significant 50-54 point gap between the most and least desirable starters.
By reversing the way we typically play D/STs, it creates a much more stable and playable dynamic, opening up an entirely new host of draft-day strategies.
Additionally, this also gives the more savvy players the stream ability to stream D/STPAs against strong defenses, much like they might in traditional D/ST formats, if they don't manage to draft a strong one.
League's that may have trepidations making such a substantial scoring change may want to start by allowing both D/STs and D/STPAs, which allows your fellow league-mates to try out the new format without losing the ability to start the defenses they like, though this is likely to be far less fun, as your left with the choice to have teams start a D/ST and a D/STPA each week or have one hybrid slot and a thoroughly diluted selection of starters each week while simultaneously allowing D/ST to face their D/STPA counterpoint to guarantee identical scores (what a bore).
It's an interesting concept that I look forward to trying in at least one league next season, but, admittedly, it feels incomplete. Compared to D/ST, D/STPA is only slightly more consistent and predictable and considerably less predictable for the middle-of-the-pack teams. If you have any suggestions or ideas on how to improve D/STPA, or you'd just like to chat, I'd love to hear your thoughts.
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